Empirical Relationships to Estimate the Probability of Runout Exceedance for Various Landslide Types

Brideau M A, de Vilder S, Massey C, Mitchell A, McDougall S,. Aaron J. 2021. Empirical Relationships to Estimate the Probability of Runout Exceedance for Various Landslide Types in F. Guzzetti et al. (eds.), Understanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk, ICL Contribution to Landslide Disaster Risk Reduction, © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60227-7_36

Estimating the potential runout distance of a landslide and associated impact area can be done using empirical or physics-based runout analysis methods. In this study, previously published international examples of landslide runout and unpublished New Zealand landslides triggered by recent earthquakes and rainstorm events have been compiled and presented in a series of DH/L versus volume plots for different landslide types, substrate, and triggers. The probability of runout exceedance is superimposed on the plots as lines. The results provide simple tools to conduct a forward-looking empirical-probabilistic runout analysis for debris avalanches, debris flows, and rock avalanches. The methodology is appropriate for a regional-level assessment or scoping-level site-specific assessment to identify areas warranting more detailed work.