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Earthquake induced landslide forecast tool

Massey CI, Lukovic B, Huso R, Buxton R, Potter SH. 2021. Earthquake-induced landslide forecast tool for New Zealand: version 2.0. Lower Hutt (NZ): GNS Science. 77 p. (GNS Science report; 2018/08). doi:10.21420/G2TP9V.

This science report outlines a prototype earthquake-induced landslide forecast tool (Version 2.0) for New Zealand. The tool produces a model of landslide probability after a significant earthquake in near-real time – approximately 7 minutes after being triggered. The function of this tool is to provide rapid advisory information about the ‘intensity’ and likely location of landslides following a major earthquake in New Zealand.

The tool is now operational within the National Geohazard Monitoring Centre of GeoNet and will take measured earthquake ground accelerations and generate a map depicting the probability of a landslide having been generated. These products will be pushed out as a rapid advisory to infrastructure managers, emergency managers, major landowners and insurers, to guide to post-earthquake reconnaissance.

The tool uses data from three historical earthquakes; the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake, the 1969 Inangahua earthquake and the 1929 Murchison earthquake and deep learning statistical methods to train the model. The methods and datasets used in the process are described in the report which can be downloaded here from the GNS Science Online Shop at no cost.

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